Critical Issues Forum 2008-2009

 

Nuclear Disarmament:

Challenges, Opportunities, and Next Steps

 

 

Benchmark  II

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Authors: Fyodor Serkov,

                      Mukasheva Kseniya,     

Nepryahin Konstantin

Form 11

School №2

Students

The Advisor: Matasova Irina

Victorovna

School №2

English teacher

 

 

 

 

 

Russia, Zarechny

2009

 

 

 

 

Contents

      1.   Introduction                                                                                                            3

2.   Objective 1                                                                                                              3

a)     UN and Disarmament.                                                                                      3

b)    The IEAE.                                                                                                                     4

c)     Treaties and Agreements related to the disarmament.                                      5

d)    International organizations dealing with nuclear disarmament.                         9

3.   Objective 2                                                                                                              10

The interest of countries in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and South America

in nuclear weapons.

4.   Objective 3                                                                                                              14

a)     Modernization of NW by nuclear powers.                                                      14

b)    The challenges of monitoring and verification.                                                 16

5.    Conclusion                                                                                                             18

6.    Bibliography                                                                                                          19

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Introduction

The main tasks of these objectives are:

¯ to investigate treaties, agreements and international organizations dealing with nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament,

¯ to demonstrate the understanding of some challenges to nuclear disarmament today, research countries in Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and South America that have demonstrated strong opinions on the topic of nuclear disarmament,

¯     to research which nations are, or want to modernize or change nuclear weapons in the arsenals.

Objective 1

a) The development of the nuclear weapon and its use by the USA against Japan, in 1945, required the establishment of an international mechanism for control of nuclear energy. At the same time, nuclear weapons became an important factor in international relations. The political relations between the US and the USSR led to the arms race, which was based on the possession of as many weapons of mass destruction as possible.

With the passing of time, these superpowers understood that this arms race could lead to the stalemate and they tried to find ways of rationalizing it.

[25]
 
[Flag of UNO]The post-war efforts of disarmament (the process of the proposed dismantling of nuclear weapons) are connected with the activities of the United Nations Organization (UN).  The main aims of this international organization are: to support and strengthen cooperation in international law, international security, economic development, social progress, human rights and achieving world peace.

  In 1946 the General Assembly adopted the first decision concerning the need to limit nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. In 1959 it stated the aim of the UN for general and complete disarmament which would be achieved under strict international control.

The General Assembly remained the central forum responsible for the consideration of disarmament issues. The work of the General Assembly is fulfilled within the framework of the proceedings of the First Committee. Every year the First Committee submits a number of drafts on disarmament.

In 1979 the UN Disarmament Commission (UNDC) was created. It establishes an important negotiating forum, outside the First Committee, in which all UN members take part. It convenes in New York each spring. [6]

The Conference on Disarmament was established in 1979 that is the only negotiating body for disarmament issues on the international level. In the Conference on Disarmament 66 states participate and decisions are taken by consensus. Within the framework of the Conference a lot of important international agreements have been adopted, such as the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling of Bacteriological and Toxin Weapon, the Convention on the Prohibition of the Development, Production and Stockpiling and use of Chemical Weapons, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty and others.

[22]
 
b) One of the organizations which controls developing, testing and using of such terrible weapons of mass-destruction as nuclear weapons is the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

The IAEA is the biggest and the most world-wide center of cooperation in the nuclear field to implement safeguards on nuclear materials and promote the peaceful uses of nuclear power. The IAEA was created as the world«s "Atoms for Peace" scientific organization in 1957 by United Nations. The Agency works with more than 140 Member States and multiple partners worldwide. Its creation was in response to deep fears and expectations connected with the discovery of nuclear energy. The reason was to ensure the safe world.

The Agency's origin was US President Eisenhower's "Atoms for Peace" address to the General Assembly of the United Nations on 8 December 1953. Its                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               ideas helped to shape the IAEA Statute, which 81 nations unanimously approved in October 1956. According to the IAEA Statute, the three main tasks of the Agency's work are:

1.    nuclear verification and security

2.    safety (Absolute safety of all nuclear objects to avoid the slightest possibility of the smallest accidents)

3.    technology transfer. (The Agency supports nuclear methods in different branches of modern science – from physics and cell biology to agricultural agronomy.)

By 1958 the political and technical climate had changed so much that it had become politically impracticable for the IAEA to begin work on some of the main tasks of its Statute. And after the Cuban missile crisis in 1962, the USA and the USSR began seeking common ground in nuclear arms control.

In 1961 the IAEA opened its Laboratory in Seibersdorf, Austria-that was a good opportunity for cooperative global nuclear research. That year the Agency signed a trilateral agreement with Monaco and the Oceanographic Institute for research on the effects of radioactivity in the sea. This action led to the creation of the IAEA's Marine Environment Laboratory.

The IAEA took further security measures because of the assessment of North KoreaÕs technology potential and the uncovering of IraqÕs secret nuclear program. A model of an Additional Protocol introducing additional safeguards was adopted. By 2004, only 84 member states had ratified the Additional Protocol. The IAEA is trying to have the Additional Protocol ratified by as many countries as possible.

The IAEA Secretariat (a team of 2200 multi-disciplinary professional and support staff from more than 90 countries) is headquartered at the Vienna International Centre in Vienna, Austria. Its regional offices are located in Geneva, Switzerland; New York, USA; Toronto, Canada; and Tokyo, Japan. The Agency runs or supports research centers and scientific laboratories in Vienna and Seibersdorf, Austria; Monaco; and Trieste, Italy.

The Agency is led by Director General Mohamed ElBaradei, career diplomat from Egypt, and six Deputy Directors General who head the major departments. At the 49th General Conference, ElBaradei was confirmed as Director General until 2009.

The  IAEA reports annually on its activities to the UN Security Council and UN General Assembly. The financial resources of the IAEA include the regular budget (Û280 million in 2007) and voluntary contributions ($70 million).

In 2004 IAEA developed a Programme of Action for Cancer Therapy (PACT) that responds to the needs of developing countries to establish, improve, or expand radiotherapy treatment programs and helps countries save lives and reduce suffering of cancer victims

The Agency and Director were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2005. In Dr. ElBaradei's speech he stated that only 1% of the money spent on developing new weapons would be enough to feed the entire world and that, if we hope to escape self-destruction, then nuclear weapons should have no place in our collective conscience, and no role in our security. [7]

c) The movement for disarmament varies from nation to nation .

When the extreme threat of nuclear war and the possession of nuclear weapons became apparent to all sides during the Cold War, a series of disarmament treaties were agreed upon between the United States, the Soviet Union, and several other states throughout the world. Many of these treaties involved years of negotiations, and seemed to result in important steps toward creating a nuclear weapons free world.  [15]

The main treaties  related to nuclear disarmament are:

- Partial Test Ban Treaty (PTBT) signed in 1963 prohibited all testing of nuclear weapons except underground.

- Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was signed in1968 and came into force in1970. The end of the Cold War led to significant achievements in nuclear non-proliferation throughout the 1990s. The NPT became the worldÕs most universal international treaty to limit the spread of nuclear weapons. More countries have ratified the NPT than any other arms control or disarmament agreement in history.  The Treaty was embraced by 189 states which are classified in two categories: nuclear-weapon states (NWS) consisting of the United States, Russia, China, France, and the United Kingdom and non-nuclear-weapon states (NNWS). The NPT is the only multilateral treaty that legally binds the five NWS (that had nuclear weapons in 1967) to pursue general and complete nuclear disarmament. The NPT commits the NNWS not to develop, acquire, or possess nuclear weapons and to accept safeguards on all of their nuclear activities and materials.

By ratifying the NPT the nations agreed to work together to stop nuclear testing, to eliminate stockpiles, to end the manufacture of nuclear weapons, and to put an end to the arms race. [8]

 Such countries as India, Israel, Pakistan and North Korea are not parties to the treaty. Israel has not declared itself  a nuclear weapon state, but is widely believed to possess a nuclear arsenal. Israel has its own nuclear weapons program. North Korea acceded to the treaty, violated it and withdrew  from the NPT on January 10, 2003. In October 2006 this state conducted an underground nuclear weapon test.

The NPT consists of a preamble and eleven articles. Three main purposes of the Treaty are: nonproliferation, disarmament, and the right to peacefully use of nuclear technology. The Treaty establishes a safeguards system under the responsibility of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which also plays a central role under the Treaty in areas of technology transfer for peaceful purposes.

- The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT I) refers to bilateral talks and corresponding international treaties between the Soviet Union and the United States. Negotiations started in Helsinki, Finland, in 1969 and continued for ten years. They were focused on limiting the stocks of nuclear weapons of two superpowers: the Soviet Union and the US. These states agreed to a freeze in the number of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).

In1972 in Moscow Richard Nixon and Leonid Brezhnev signed the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty (ABMT) and the Interim Agreement on Offensive Arms. This helped to improve relations between the USA and the Soviet Union. The ABM Treaty is the treaty on the limitation of the ABM systems used in defending areas against missile-delivered nuclear weapons. Under the treaty the United States and Soviet Union could deploy anti-ballistic missile interceptors at two sites, each with up to 100 ground-based launchers for ABM interceptor missiles. In a 1974 Protocol, the US and Soviet Union agreed to only deploy an ABM system to one site. [13]

- Strategic Arms Limitation Treaty (SALT II) was signed in 1979. Replacing SALT I, SALT II limited both the Soviet Union and the United States to an equal number of ICBM launchers, SLBM launchers, and heavy bombers. Also placed limits on Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicles (MIRVS). The US Senate refused to ratify the Salt II Treaty.

- Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) signed in 1987 created a global ban on short- and long-range nuclear weapons systems, as well as an intrusive verification regime.

- Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START I) signed in 1991 and ratified in 1994 limited long-range nuclear forces in the United States and the newly independent states of the former Soviet Union to 6,000 attributed warheads on 1,600 ballistic missiles and bombers.

-Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty II (START II) signed in 1993, was ratified by the US Senate in 1996 and the Russian Douma in 2000.START II was a bilateral agreement between the US and Russia which attempted to commit each side to deploy no more than 3,000 to 3,500 warheads by December 2007. The treaty also included a prohibition against deploying multiple independent reentry vehicles (MIRVs) on intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

-Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT or Moscow Treaty) was signed in 2002, came into force in 2003. It is a very loose treaty that is often criticized by arms control advocates for its ambiguity and lack of depth.  Russia and the United States agreed to reduce their "strategic nuclear warheads" (a term that remain undefined in the treaty) to between 1,700 and 2,200 by 2012.

- Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) was signed in 1996 (but not yet in force). The CTBT is an international treaty that bans all nuclear explosions in all environments. This treaty makes an important contribution to protecting and safeguarding the worldÕs environment. By signing the CTBT, 178 states have decided to support this treaty as a powerful instrument to protect our planet from terrible effects of nuclear explosions. The CTBT has not yet entered into force although 144 states have already ratified it. While the treaty is not in force, Russia has not tested nuclear weapons since 1990 and the United States- since 1992. [13]

           - The Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) is a proposed international treaty to prevent the further production of fissile material for weapons and other explosive devices. In December 1993 the UN General Assembly (UNGA) adopted a resolution calling for the start of negotiations on a treaty. Further to this the Conference on Disarmament (CD), after several years of delay, also agreed to start negotiations. However, the work program has not begun because of the different opinions  on the scope of the treaty and on linkages to other disarmament issues, such as a treaty on the prevention of an arms race in outer space. An FMCT could:

á      Ban the production of fissile material, which includes un-irradiated plutonium and highly-enriched uranium.

á      Require agreement not to assist other states in such activities; and

á      Require acceptance of IAEA inspections to verify that treaty obligations are being met.

á      Strengthen the nonproliferation regime, reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism, and help achieve nuclear disarmament. [4]

Article VII of the NPT gives some regions the right to make treaties establishing the so-called Ónuclear-weapon-free zonesÓ(NWFZ). The establishment of  NWFZs contributes to controlling the spread of weapons of mass destruction. Most  nuclear weapon states wish to retain their weapons for reasons of security and prestige, they fear that their neighbours are developing such weapons. Nuclear-weapon-free zones are intended to fix this security dilemma because they prohibit the possession, testing, transporting and stationing of nuclear weapons within a specific area. Without the presence of nuclear material in a region, no country should feel insecure enough to seek or develop such weapons. At its foundation, NWFZs are confidence-building measures aimed at improving trust among neighbouring countries. In the Treaty, it is established that Òmilitarily denuclearized zones are not an end in themselves but rather a means for achieving general and complete disarmament at a later stage. [24]

Up to this time, five treaties establishing NWFZs exist:

á  Antarctic Treaty (1959) prohibits any military activity in the Antarctic region.

á  Treaty of Tlatelolco (1967) prohibits the testing, use, storage and acquisition of nuclear weapons in Latin America. Cuba acceded to the Treaty in 2003 and now all the states of Latin America are party to the Treaty.

á  Treaty of Rarotonga (1985) provides for a NWFZ in the South Pacific region.

á  NWFZsTreaty of Pelindaba (1996) prohibits the testing and use of nuclear weapons in Africa.

á  Treaty of Bangkok (1997) establishes a NWFZ in Southeast Asia. [6]

There are also NWFZs on the seabed -Seabed Treaty, and in outer space -Outer Space Treaty and the Moon Agreement.

[11]
 
 On 19 December 2003, the Assembly proposed a resolution for the Middle East to become nuclear-weapon-free, and  the creation of new regional NWFZs in South Asia, Northeast Asia and Central Europe. The newest treaty establishing the Central Asia Nuclear Weapon Free Zone (CANWFZ) was signed on September 8, 2006 by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan at Semipalatinsk, a former nuclear test site in Kazakhstan. Mongolia also declares itself, and is internationally recognized, as a single-state nuclear weapon-free zone. [10]

The recent growth of NWFZs suggests that these regions will continue to expand and it proves the fact that the creation of an NWFZ is a step in the right direction for nuclear disarmament.

d) There are many organizations that fight for nuclear disarmament.

European Nuclear Disarmament (END) was a 1980s peace movement group in Britain, led by E. P. Thompson, Mary Kaldor and others, which founded a Europe-wide movement for a "nuclear-free Europe from Poland to PortugalÓ that put on annual European Nuclear Disarmament conventions from 1982 to 1991. [3]

The Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND) is an organization that advocates nuclear disarmament by Britain. It also campaigns for international nuclear disarmament and tighter international arms regulation through agreements such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. It opposes military action that may result in the use of nuclear, chemical or biological weapons and the building of nuclear power stations in the UK.

Many organizations and networks distribute information and put pressure on governments, e.g. the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament (CND). It advocated a policy of unilateral nuclear disarmament in the United Kingdom together with the Labour far, leading it to become Labour Party policy in 1960-61 and again in 1980-89.[3]

So, today we have a world-wide movement for nuclear disarmament. However, and there are some problems that has not been decided yet. There are states that are not involved into this movement at all. Some of them such as Israel, India, Pakistan, the Northern Korea have nuclear weapons. Iran is suspected to have nuclear weapons, too. All these countries are involved into local conflicts so there is a chance of using nuclear weapons by them.

Today the problem of nuclear disarmament is being discussed by many states.

The International Conference on Nuclear Disarmament took place in Oslo on 26th and 27th February, 2008. It was organized by The Government of Norway, the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority in collaboration with the NTI (Nuclear Threat Initiative) and the Hoover Institute. The Conference entitled "Achieving the Vision of a World Free of Nuclear Weapons" had the purpose of building consensus between nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states about the importance of all the actions for nuclear disarmament. The specific aims are:

¥ To identify and formulate disarmament, non-proliferation and nuclear risk reduction proposals that can realistically be realized in 2-5 years.

¥ To discuss long-term objectives and how progress can be made toward achieving them.

The conference focused on the discussion over several questions, some of them were:

-                      what nuclear-weapon states and non-nuclear-weapon states can do to reduce the role of nuclear weapons in national security policies,

-                       how regional conflicts impact efforts to reduce nuclear dangers,

-                      the  role of treaties in the process of nuclear disarmament. [5]

Objective 2

It is a well known fact that there are several countries in different parts of the world that have a particular interest in weapons of mass-destruction, especially NWs. They can be divided according to the regions they are located:

¤ In Asia these countries are: Japan, Thailand, South Korea, and Afghanistan.

¤ In South America there are so-called Òpro-nuclearÓ states, which are Brazil, Argentina, Venezuela, Cuba and Columbia (but this country is under the US protection – there are several numbers of large American military bases there).

¤   

Made by Fyodor Serkov
 
Africa is rather a poor region, but the richest and the biggest countries on it like Egypt and RSA are very interested in owning the nuclear warheads.

¤ The Middle East. This territory is sadly famous by its permanent war conflicts between Israel, Palestine, Iraq and Iran these countries are interested in producing nuclear warheads. Saudi Arabia in its turn is included in the list of the states interested in the development of NWs, though Saudi Arabia is rather a peaceful country. LetÕs pay attention to each of these regions with their own features and investigate, why Asia is the most active region in the ÒNuclear questÓ.

There is a strong opposition between Israel and Iran with Palestine. In 1948 on the territory of Israel there were military actions. There have always been a lot of conflicts, and usually large terroristic groups like Al-Qaeda or Hezbollah take part in them organizing terrible terroristic acts and accidents. That is why for these countries the reason for having NW could be:

¤    A way to demonstrate their superiority in the world.

¤    An effective way to influence the enemy by threatening to use nuclear warheads.

But it is a known fact that Israel is an owner of NW de facto. Official documents refuse this fact. [22]

The second large Middle East country which wants to develop NW is Iran. Iran possesses all kinds of necessary resources.  Its president, Mahmud Ahmadinejad works perfectly to realize his dream – to produce nuclear energy and to build nuclear laboratories and reactors in the country, but nobody knows what could be used for it and nobody can predict what Iran would do with high nuclear technologies. In this connection no one can predict a threat for other countries in the region or real obtrusion of its own politics in the Middle East and even in the world. The reason that speaks for Iran threat is the opening of a factory for recycling heavy water (HO). An expert in the Center of International Security in Russian Academy of Science Vladimir Dvorkin said, that the plant allows Iran to produce warhead plutonium. [9]

It seems that Iran will continue its nuclear policy and will show what it creates, but the president of the US Mr. Obama in March, 2009 expressed the hope that Iran will determine its future in the world by its ability to create, not destroy.

As far as Iraq is concerned, it is the state that has neither special scientific development nor any type of weapons of mass-destruction including NW. But it had obtained it by 1991 when special services had found it during the military operation called ÒDesert StormÓ. The result of this operation was UN Security Council resolutions #687 and #715. According to these resolutions Iraq had to destroy all its military nuclear potential.

Another region urging to possess NW is Africa – a Nuclear Safe Zone. Nowadays there are only two states on this continent which are interested in NW. One of them is the RSA. Some years ago it admitted to having 6 nuclear warheads, but dismantling them in time. It shows that NPT can not control all countries in the world. May be there are some states on the Earth which have some NWs uncontrolled at the moment. [9]

In December, 2003 LibyaÕs leader Muhammar Gadaffi demonstrated the world the working drawings and designs of nuclear warheads. It means that this state was involved in the process of development NW, but in short time the state was made to cut off all the projects connected with NW. Schemes and documents are located now in the IAEA offices it the United States. Libya officially expressed its negative attitude to the development of the nuclear warheads.

Analyzing facts about African countries, we can come to the conclusion that the so-called ÒThird World statesÓ followed the biggest industrial giants and tried to organize the development of NW of their own from the beginning of NW-era. They believed it would guarantee their independence in the future. The analysis of information proves that Pakistan gave them a tremendous support. It shared its technologies with African countries; it also gave Libya those notorious schemes and designs.

LetÕs study the problem of the NW in the countries of South America and understand the influence of other countries.

Made by Fyodor Serkov
 
This diagram represents present political situation in South America. There is a well-known fact that some countries are under the political influence of Russia and the US. Cuba and Venezuela are the allies of Russia and Brazil, Argentina and Columbia are the US allies. [12]

 A lot of large joint military maneuvers were conducted by Venezuela and the Russian Federation, there are Russian marines near the shores of Venezuela. The US has a lot of large military bases in Columbia, this influences military and peaceful politics of this state. The US also helps Argentina and Brazil with their atomic projects. But fortunately Argentina and Brazil donÕt think about military use of the atomic energy.

Of course there is some element of rivalry between the biggest worldÕs powers, and some analysts in Venezuela, Columbia and Cuba think that it can be explained by their old opposition during the period of Cold War, may be these analysts want to split the Russian Federation and the United States and take their own benefit. But their statements are not important; the important fact is that if these countries develop their own NW, it would occur only with the agreement of the patrons. As for Brazil, we can speak about peaceful use of atomic energy for humansÕ needs, besides the atomic energy is an important object for research activity.     

While studying the ÒNuclear questÓ in the world, we should focus on the most important region from my point of view. It is Asia. Why is it so significant? 3 reasons can be singled out:

1)                      The first reason concerns Japan. It is the state with a tremendous level of technologies. But after the WWII and the tragedy in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, Japan refused NW; but continued to research the atomic energy and develop NPPs. But Japanese government says that Japan doesnÕt like to investigate Ònuclear questÓ (we should not dismiss it from the accounts). If Japan have NW it will spoil relations with the United States. And although Japan assures the world that it doesnÕt want to develop warheads, it sounds enough persuasive. [14]

2)                      Asia now is the region with the quickest level of NW development, especially India and Pakistan now want to be the leaders in this sphere. They investigate new technologies, and, that is rather important, they have always helped the Middle East, African countries and countries of South America.

Pakistan is a Muslim state and considers helping other Muslim countries in the Ònuclear questÓ to be its duty. It has shared his own schemes and designs with Libya and Egypt (a perfect example of this process). It seems that Pakistan follows his own commercial benefit. [18]

3)                      Thirdly, Asia is the region, which can control the situation in the world. This is a region where a lot of countries are developing and growing their own nuclear potential WITHOUT ANY SERIOUS CONTROL. They are: China, North Korea (it is an owner of a number of nuclear warheads de facto, though it is holding nuclear warheads tests regularly), India, and Pakistan. They are an example to follow for other countries and cause some threats. Analysts over the world say if Japan, or South Korea, or Thailand develop NW, that will arose a great wave of interest to the nuclear warheads and military use of the atomic energy on the Earth. And nobody knows how International Treaties will control it. ThatÕs why the situation in Asia is of a particular interest all over the world. [14]

There are contradictions between the counties without nuclear weapon and the main nuclear powers. The reasons are :

¯  The counties without nuclear weapon are afraid of possible conflicts and disregard of   their national interests as the result.

¯  The counties without nuclear weapon are becoming anxious that the nuclear powers  can play the main part on the international scene and impose their rules.

¯  States like Germany, SRA and Japan consider the fact not being admitted to working out of NW unfair. It is possible to believe these countries are just interested in the scientific side of the problem. But one canÕt deny that if Japan obtain NW the conflict connected with the Kuril Islands will start again causing in its turn tension in Japan – US relations

 

Objective 3

a)         In my opinion, we live in a complicated, unpredictable and dangerous world now. Despite the idea of nuclear disarmament, many countries modernize or change the nuclear weapons  in their arsenals. They continue to maintain nuclear forces for some important reasons: the international security environment remains dangerous and unpredictable; nuclear weapons continue to play unique roles in supporting national security as they remain an essential element in modern strategy.

The world has changed a lot after the Cold War that ended almost 20 years ago, but there are still 20,300 nuclear weapons in stockpiles around the world. 10,300 of these weapons are deployed. The US and Russia are no longer adversaries.

The US has made historic reductions in its strategic nuclear forces by about 50 % over the past 15 years and plans to reduce them to a level of 1,700 to 2,200 by 2012, as called for the Moscow Treaty. The US has also reduced its non-strategic nuclear forces and the total nuclear warhead stockpile by 90% since 1991.

Nuclear weapons continue to be a key element in US alliances with other countries, such as NATO allies-Japan, South Korea and Australia.

US President Barack Obama has set a goal of a Òworld without nuclear weaponsÓ, but the Pentagon calls for modernization of nuclear arsenals. The new administration has an intention to engage Russia in negotiations on deeper cuts in nuclear arms with the aim of reducing them to zero. 

US Defense Secretary Robert Gates thinks that the deeper cuts must be supported by production of a new warhead to replace an ageing nuclear stockpile.

"Currently, the United States is the only declared nuclear power that is neither modernizing its nuclear arsenal nor has the capability to produce a new nuclear weapon," Gates said in speech to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in October 28, 2008.  He stated that the USA shouldnÕt ignore efforts by such states as North Korea and Iran to develop and deploy nuclear weapons, or Russian and Chinese strategic modernization programs.

 ÒThe National Nuclear Security Administration has lost a quarter of its workforce since the 1990s, and half of the scientists at US nuclear labs are over 50 years old,Ó he said. ÒThe older and less reliable the nuclear arsenal is, he added, the more difficult it will be to make sharp cuts in the US stockpile and reduce the number of nuclear weapons.Ó [5]

Geoff Morrell, the Pentagon press secretary, said Gates has not had a chance yet to discuss his ideas on nuclear issues with Obama.[16]

Proponents of modernization want Congress to fund the Production of a new ÒReliable Replacement WarheadÓ (RRW) which would connect safely features in its design to prevent accidental detonation or unauthorized use. But the Congress has been skeptical of the need for the RRW.

Nowadays modernization of Russian strategic nuclear forces is a top priority for the government.  Deputy Prime Minister Sergey Ivanov told lawmakers in his speech on the 25th of February that the process of upgrading ground, sea and air components of nationÕs strategic deterrent forces  is expensive but necessary.

Russian military weaknesses, for example, shortages of precision weapons and modern communications were evident during its August war with Georgia. The development of Russian nuclear arsenals will include upgrading the nationÕs satellite network, modernizing the militaryÕs information network and procuring ÒsmartÓ weapons. The important program for the air force is the development of a next- generation fighter jet. Ivanov stated that, despite the financial crisis, the spending on new weapons will not be cut. [19]

 Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, at a meeting with military chiefs in Moscow on the 17th of March ordered a "large-scale" rearmament of the Russian army and navy to begin in 2011. He said Russia must upgrade its arsenals and combat readiness to fend off threats posed by NATO's expansion, international terrorism and local conflicts. 

The government budgeted 1.5 trillion rubles ($43 billion) for weapons purchases this year, about 25 percent of it to be spent on upgrading the nation's aging, Soviet-era nuclear force. The main  task of military program is a qualitative increase in the troops readiness, especially of strategic nuclear forces because they must guarantee the fulfillment of all tasks of ensuring Russia's security. Russia will focus more on new weapons purchases than repairs of the existing arsenals. The president also said the military must increase the pace of combat training. "We mustn't save money on that," he said. [20]

China has had a functional nuclear weapon infrastructure for over 30 years and the only major nuclear power that is expanding the size of its arsenal. China modernizes its forces increasing their quality and quantity. It develops  new classes of missiles upgrading older missile systems and developing methods to counter ballistic missile defences. China improves nuclear forces developing advanced cruise missiles, medium-range ballistic missiles and anti-ship ballistic missiles.

Michael D. Maples, director of the Defense Intelligence Agency, described how India and other nations are moving forward with their own nuclear programs.

"We believe that India and Pakistan . . . continue expanding and modernizing their nuclear weapon stockpiles," Maples said, adding, "Pakistan has also developed the capability to produce plutonium for potential weapons use."

He also reported that North Korea is continuing to produce plutonium for its nuclear program, and that China "is likely" to increase the number of its nuclear-armed theater and strategic weapons and "has sufficient fissile material to support this growth."[23]

Regional dynamics lead India and Pakistan to pay great attention to their nuclear forces. The UK and France have made decisions to maintain their nuclear forces to guard against the challenges ahead.

b) While studying the articles about the challenges of monitoring and verification, I found out that verification is the process of collecting and analyzing information by experts  to determine compliance with treaty requirements. Experts draw conclusions based on the evidence collected and pass it on to a higher political body for judgment. 

This process establishes a system of trust and confidence,  it shows that all members are in compliance with the treaty. The requirements of disarmament treaties relate to the nonproliferation of nuclear weapons, the reduction of nuclear stockpiles, and the prohibition of research and testing. 

An effective verification mechanism enhances the purpose and goals of the treaty .It can also encourage countries to sign and ratify treaties.

Verification efforts can be fulfilled by single states or collectively.  The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization  is mandated with the creation of a global verification system. It relies on remote monitoring  through seismic technologies. Trained professionals  which are called safeguards , conduct on-site inspections of member statesÕ nuclear facilities and materials. Safeguards take place with the help of the IEAE and determine whether a country is diverting peaceful nuclear technologies for military purposes. 

A lot of United Nations bodies and institutions are involved in the process of verification:

Verification  mechanisms are often fulfilled by an institution  that is specifically created for monitoring a treaty. It usually depends on the financial and political support of the member states of the treaty. Safeguards may apply to bilateral or multilateral agreements between countries. 

The NPT requires its non-nuclear weapon members to enter into a comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA  To ensure that peaceful technology is not diverted, NPT states have to declare facilities and materials to the IAEA. [26]

The Additional Protocol requires States parties to report on all aspects of its nuclear fuel cycle, allow for short-notice inspections to all facilities on a nuclear site and access to other nuclear-related sites .

The IAEA trains  its own inspectors, who usually have professional expertise in nuclear physics, chemistry or engineering.  Inspectors visit nuclear facilities in member countries and conduct a range of activities such as:

á  the collection of environmental samples in facilities,

á  the verification of design information of facilities as provided by the host country

á  the remote monitoring of movement of declared material in a facility,

á  the evaluation of information derived from a countryÕs official declaration and open source information.

Unfortunately not all member states have concluded their agreements with the IAEA, though safeguards are a treaty requirement under Article III of the NPT.  Most of these countries, such as Benin, Somalia, or Timor-Leste, are not engaged in any nuclear activities and do not see the need for IAEA inspections on their territory.  As the Additional Protocol is currently a voluntary measure, NPT member states are not obligated to implement it.  The IAEA and many NPT members calls for the universalization of the Additional Protocol to make it the new safeguards standard of today. 

The United Nations Special Commission  was created by the United Nations Security Council  to dismantle the Iraqi nuclear program in cooperation with the IAEA.  A country-specific verification system under the IAEA Iraq Action Team removed all nuclear weapons-grade material and destroyed nuclear sites during the 1990s.  The Action Team was renamed the Iraq Nuclear Verification Office in 2002. [26]

The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization ( CTBTO) establishes the International Monitoring  System and International Data Center, which form the basis of the verification system.  The purpose of the CTBTO work is to ensure that the verification mechanism is fully developed by the time the CTBT enters into force.  The IMS comprises an international network of 321 monitoring stations and 16 radionuclide laboratories which monitor the earth for evidence of nuclear explosions in all environments. The system uses four verification methods: seismic, hydroacoustic, infrasound, and radionuclide stations, and will be supplemented by on-site inspections once the treaty is in force.

The Agency for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean (OPANAL) works to ensure the implementation of the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons in Latin America and the Caribbean, also called the Treaty of Tlatelolco.  The Treaty of Tlatelolco of 1967 establishes a regional nuclear-weapon-free zone and prohibits the testing, use, fabrication, production, or acquisition of nuclear weapons by its 33 member states.

According to the amendments which were approved by  OPANAL's General Conference in 1992 to strengthen the existing verification mechanism, the IAEA is the only organization that has the power to carry out special inspections if invited by a member state to the Treaty. [26] Conclusion

In conclusion I want to say about an interesting thing IÕve noticed: almost all countries are speaking about the harmful consequences of using the atomic energy in military purposes. Almost all countries want to develop it in a peaceful way. There are special organizations which control this kind of activity like the IAEA or European Atom.

But from time to time we hear that nuclear warheads or schemes and designs have been found out in some states. And these are the states discussing the NPT and rejecting using NW categorically.

 It is rather sad to see how the states violate their own words.

I think, that the stereotype ÒNW is a perfect defenderÓ is rather a weak argument but both powerful and not very strong states think that it is still working. Unfortunately the period of Cold War effected on the modern politics as some countries believe their power depends on the sizes of NW stockpiles. It seems to me that they become the members of the NPT to get the status, the IAEA support and access to modern technologies.  But after that they could use the technologies in military purposes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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