Benchmark Three
(2004-2005)

• Your final task is to use the knowledge you have gained thus far: the motivations and resources you learned about in Benchmark I and the current nuclear realities and treaties to develop visions for the future. You will try to determine the kinds of nuclear weapons proliferation/ nonproliferation events and issues that will occur in the regions of the world that you have studied.
• This task focuses on the identification and analysis of scenarios for the future.
• In your investigations you will examine the objectives from the point of view of the scientific & environmental; social & cultural; economic; political & geopolitical domains to help you to build an understanding of what might (should) take place in the future.

Objective:

Develop two written scenarios for the future. The first scenario will be driven by proliferation/nonproliferation efforts. The second will be driven by the development of response(s) to these efforts. In both scenarios, identify the implications that would occur in the interactions of the four domains. You should include the following issues in the scenarios:

1. environmental impact of nuclear materials and weapons
2. economic growth
3. political stability
4. social stability
5. accountability
6. nuclear science and evolving technologies

   Suggested Pre-work:

Preview one or more of the following movies that have plot lines based on destruction of civilization by nuclear holocaust or some other catastrophe.

• Dr. Strangelove
• On the Beach
• Silent Running
• Road Warrior
• The Postman
• The Day After

Use segments or the entire film and:

• Using the four domains, analyze the possible causes of the scenario shown in the movie.
• Write a script for a sequel to the story presented.
• Create a solution to the problems illuminated in the first task.

  Suggested Activities:

1. Invite a knowledgeable speaker to come to your class. The speaker could be from any number of backgrounds, for example: a nearby university professor, a representative from a pro-nuclear group, a representative from an anti-nuclear group, your local Congressman or other political official, etc. Be sure to present all sides of the issue, not just pro- nuclear or just anti- nuclear views.
   
   
2. Address one of the following possible future perspectives:
   • Nuclear proliferation with overall positive results
   • Nuclear proliferation with overall negative results
   • Nonproliferation with overall positive results
   • Nonproliferation with overall negative results
   Use the knowledge you have developed in the Benchmarks to address these questions. Choose and area of the world to apply your ideas.
   
   
3. Research and present possible responses of each of the nations you studied in Benchmark II the proliferation/nonproliferation incidents below
   • A neighboring country has just developed a nuclear capability
   • A neighboring country has just renounced its nuclear capability
   • A nuclear nation is exporting expertise to a non-nuclear nation
   • A nuclear nation is exporting technology to a non-nuclear nation
   Use the knowledge you have developed in the Benchmarks to address these questions. Choose and area of the world to apply your ideas.
   
   
4. In the case of a threatened nuclear incident, what precautions should be in place to protect the citizenry of a country? Make a chart of what should be done and who would be involved in doing it.
   
   
5. Develop a paper regarding the future of the NPT. Should it be kept the way it is now? Should it be changed and how? Should it be discarded? If it is discarded, what should take its place?
   

http://www.criticalissuesforum.org/bmk06_3.html
updated 03 November 2005